Finding value on the used-QB market

Given the chance, I’ll always buy an open-box special.

You know what I’m talking about, right? The product that is being offered at a discount because it has already been opened. Maybe someone got it home and found a big ol’ scratch running down the side (which was the case with the Yamaha receiver I have). Perhaps it was being used as a display model (as was the case with my favorite dress shoes).

I know what I’m getting isn’t brand new.

I knew I was buying it “As is.”

I’ve got no problems with that, and my willingness to shop in this manner might explain why I’m so excited about the quarterbacks in this Sunday’s Seahawks game: Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. I think there’s a lesson there about the quarterback market. We’ll get to that after we set the table for this weekend.

🏈 Leading off 🏈 

Washington Huskies at Maryland Terrapins, Saturday, 12:30 p.m. Pacific (Big 10 Network)

We’re going to see how tough the Huskies are.

Maryland is undefeated, has one of the best freshmen in the country in quarterback Malik Washington and a defense that is — at the very least — statistically impressive.

To win this game, the Huskies need to be able to outmuscle Maryland. Specifically, they need to be able to run the ball against the Terps, something that is complicated by the fact that the status of left tackle Carver Willis is very much up in the air.

As the week progressed, I became increasingly convinced Washington is going to win. That might be my heart talking, not my head.

I think the result of this game will tell us everything we need to know about whether this season will wind up feeling like a clear step forward in Jedd Fisch’s second year.

⚾️ Next up ⚾️ 

Over the past month, this Mariners season became nothing short of a validation of Jerry Dipoto’s approach to building this team.

You might think this would be awkward for me to admit given that just one year ago, I was advocating for him to be fired.

I can’t remember being so happy about being wro …

I can’t remember being so happy about being so very wrrrooooooo …

I think I was a bit rash in my judgment last year as I explain in this week’s column for The News Tribune.

Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners, American League Divisional Series

Game 1, Saturday, 5:38 p.m. Pacific

Game 2, Sunday, 5 p.m. Pacific

The Tigers beat Cleveland 6-3 on Thursday, winning the best-of-three series.

Regular-season vs. Detroit: Seattle was 4-2 vs. the Tigers in the regular season. However, Detroit won two of three in Seattle back at the start of the season before Seattle swept a three-game set in Detroit in July.

Pitching matchups: Neither team had announced its Game 1 starter as of Friday morning. I’d expect Seattle to go with Logan Gilbert. This article in the Detroit Free-Press looks at Detroit’s options given the Tigers used their top-three starters in the wild-card round. While Bryan Woo threw on Thursday, it sure doesn’t sound like he’s going to be ready to start a game in this round of the playoffs.

For a little more on the Mariners in the postseason, you can listen to me talk to Nathan Bishop of “The Light Bat” as well as Mitch Levy of “Mitch Unfiltered.”

🛒 Bargain hunting 🛒 

The Mariners playoff game against the Tigers is actually the night cap to Sunday’s double-header, following Seahawks-Bucs game that will be played across the street earlier that afternoon.

This game features two quarterbacks who serve as examples of the value that can be found on the used-quarterback market.

Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield was the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 draft, chosen by the Browns. The Bucs are the fourth team he’s played for.

Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 draft, picked by the Jets. The Seahawks are the fifth team he’s played for.

Mayfield has led the Bucs to the playoffs each of the past two seasons. Darnold won 14 games as Minnesota’s starter last season. If you asked me to rank the league’s quarterbacks strictly on their performance through four games so far this season, I’d include Mayfield and Arnold among the top 10.

Usually this is where a column like this veers into a discussion of the timetable for development and the impatience that teams exhibit toward quarterbacks.

I think all of that’s true, however, I’m going to take a different approach: resources.

A brand-new, top-of-the-line rookie quarterback costs a ton. That remains true even since the rookie wage scale was implemented in 2011 because one of the most valuable things a team spends on a young quarterback is time.

Cleveland not only used the No. 1 overall pick on Mayfield, the Browns invested four years waiting and wondering if he was really the franchise quarterback they needed.

Tampa Bay, conversely, took the open-box special when he became a free agent. The Bucs knew he was far from perfect. They were signing him as-is. They also got him for a one-year deal with a base salary of $4 million and when that turned out about as well as anyone could have reasonably hoped in 2023, they signed him to a three-year extension.

Now, Darnold’s market price this past offseason was significantly higher than Mayfield’s when he went to Tampa in 2023. Darnold was coming off a 14-win season as Minnesota’s starter. But he didn’t cost Seattle a high-end draft pick, and more importantly in my opinion, the Seahawks have not tied the trajectory of the team to his performance beyond anything other than this season.

Does Darnold have the same ceiling as Cam Ward, the top overall pick in this year’s draft or that of Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels who were the top two picks in last year’s draft? No. I don’t think he does.

Darnold also didn’t cost Seattle nearly as much, and I’m not speaking of money here so much as time. Seattle does not have to spend the next three seasons doing everything to make Darnold a success in the same way that the Titans and Bears do with their quarterbacks.

Signing Darnold didn’t prevent Seattle from drafting a quarterback (as Seattle did with Jalen Milroe). Starting Darnold does not prevent Seattle from developing a quarterback. It doesn’t mandate the kind of commitment that is required when you drafter a quarterback in the top five.

I am convinced that NFL teams overvalue the untainted possibilities that come from drafting a rookie quarterback to be their long-term starter. They become so smitten with the idea of what he can do (and what it would mean to have a starting quarterback on a rookie deal) that they get talked into making a huge investment when it’s very possible that same player could be available in four or five years at a much lower opportunity cost.

He won’t have the same upside then. He won’t have the same price tag, either, though. Then again, I’m an open-box special kind of guy so maybe I’m biased.