Four yards and a headache

The play that I thought epitomized Seattle’s victory on Saturday night did not result in points.

It did not prevent them, either.

It was a play that was largely lost amidst the parade of big hits, but one that stuck in my mind because it epitomized just how hard the Seahawks defense made absolutely everything for San Francisco.

With just over a minute left in the first half, the 49ers had the ball in Seattle’s half of the field, facing second-and-7. Christian McCaffrey took the handoff from Brock Purdy and sprinted to his right.

Then McCaffrey tossed the ball to Brian Robinson who was coming in the opposite direction. Robinson pitched the ball back to Purdy who then threw to McCaffrey, who was running down the sideline.

McCaffrey evaded safety Nick Emmanwori but took a big hit from linebacker Ernest Jones.

That’s how hard it was for the 49ers to gain 4 yards.

That’s also how hard it was for the 49ers to get in scoring position. Purdy was tackled by Uchenna Nwosu on the next play for no gain, and the 49ers kicked a field goal for what turned out to be their only points in what might be the most important regular-season game in the Seahawks’ franchise history.

The reason I say that is not because of how good Seattle’’s defense looked (though it did look great). The importance comes from the difference it made in Seattle’s playoff positioning.

With the victory, the Seahawks are the top seed in the NFC and have a first-round bye.

This is the fourth time in franchise history that the Seahawks have earned a No. 1 seed in the playoffs. The previous three times were 2005, 2013 and 2014. In each of the three previous instances, Seattle won two straight playoff games – at home – and reached the Super Bowl.

The results from the past five years also demonstrate the advantage. Here’s a look at Super Bowl appearances by seed since league instituted the current playoff format in 2020 with seven teams from each conference qualifying for the postseason and only the top seed getting a bye through the first round of the playoffs:

In other words, five of the 10 teams to earn a top seed in in their conference under the current format went on to win the Super Bowl. Only one team that was a wild-card entrant had reached the Super Bowl in that time: The 2020 Bucs, which had Tom Brady.

Now it should also be pointed out that of those 10 teams that have received the No. 1 seed in their conference in the past five seasons, three lost at home in the divisional round. That includes last year’s Lions, who were beaten by the San Francisco 49ers.

But Seattle gave itself the absolute best chance of reaching the Super Bowl.

Let’s get back to what happaned on Saturday night:

That San Francisco team was hardly at full strength. The 49ers have played most of this year without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, who are their best defenders. Their offense was notably lacking at wide receiver as Brandon Aiyuk never did take the field for them and receiver Ricky Pearsall did not play.

Still, the Niners had scored more than 35 points in each of their past three games. They had scored at least once in 27 consecutive quarters, and they got absolutely thumped by the Seahawks in spite of Seattle missing two field-goal attempts and frittering away two other prime scoring opportunities.

This was a game that felt like Seattle’s victory in San Francisco on Thanksgiving 2014 or the 49ers’ victory in Seattle on Thanksgiving 2019. Both teams come in thinking they’ve got a shot at winning the division, and it turns out to be a trip to the woodshed.

The Seahawks did not make EVERY tackle though it certainly seemed like it. They missed two. On the other hand, Next Gen Stats had the 49ers with a season-high 16 missed tackles.

Seattle was simply the stronger team in this game, on both sides of the ball, and it wasn’t particularly close.

McCaffrey carried the ball eight times. He never gained more than 5 yards. He caught six passes, including the one that resulted in him getting blown up on the sidelin. None of those plays gained more than 9 yards.

This was — in many ways — the kind of performance that John Schneider envisioned when he chose Mike Macdonald as the Seahawks coach with a defense that absolutely chokes out the wide-zone rushing attack that is the signature of not just Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers offense but the system Sean McVay uses with the Rams.

People like to say that Shanahan had Pete Carroll’s number, and that’s not entirely true. From 2017 through 2021, the Seahawks were 8-2 against Shanahan’s Niners with San Francisco being held to fewer than 100 yards rushing in seven of those 10 games.

That changed in Carroll’s final two seasons when the 49ers went 5-0 vs. Seattle, including a first-round playoff victory. Four of those five wins were by double digits, including a 31-13 pasting on Thanksgiving in 2023, and the 49ers rushed for more than 150 yards in each of those five games.

Now I’m not silly enough to think that Macdonald has “solved” what Shanahan does on offense. It’s clear, however, that the Seahawks have assembled a defense that is downright formidable and now they’ll get a week of rest before beginning their postseason run.