Seattle's post-mortem exam

Dearly beloved,

We are gathered here today not to dwell upon the death of Seattle’s World Series dreams, but to celebrate this season that brought the Mariners closer to that stage than they’ve ever been before.

Not to fixate on the quantity of strikeouts that occurred in the playoffs and that final inning in particular, but to remember the power that this team flexed.

Not to dwell upon one decision that Mariner manager Dan Wilson made in the top of the seventh, but to … wait … sorry … I’m not ready to move past the way that Wilson managed that final game. What I am going to do is take a deep breath and organize my thoughts before I dive in.

But first, football!

I’ll start with the Seattle Seahawks who absolutely, positively can not lose this weekend. This is because they have a bye.

They will return to work next week with a record of 5-2 and prepare for a Sunday night game against the Washington Commanders who may or may not have quarterback Jayden Daniels back for that game. He’s sitting out this week because of a strained hamstring.

When this season began, I was more optimistic about the Seahawks than most media members. Now, I find myself in the odd position of being more skeptical than a number of them.

My perspective on the team hasn’t changed: I think Seattle will win its division because it has the best defense. However, while the offense has been better than I expected, I have a hard time envisioning this team advancing past the divisional round of the playoffs given the lack of a consistent run game and how much of its offense has depended upon Jaxson Smith-Njigba.

On the one hand, it’s really impressive that Seattle could beat Houston despite committing four turnovers. On the other hand, teams that play with their food as much as the Seahawks do usually wind up paying for it in the end.

🥐 Turnovers 🥐 ¹

The league’s official stats still list the Seahawks as the only team in the league that has yet to recover an opponent’s fumble. Of course, we know that Drake Thomas did recover C.J. Stroud’s fumble. He just fumbled it back before reaching the end zone.

The fact that Seattle beat Houston in spite of committing four turnovers is fairly remarkable. So is the fact that the Seahawks are 5-2 despite having a turnover margin of -4, which ranks in the bottom quarter of the league.

One of the things I periodically do in the NFL season is to look at league-wide turnover margins to try and identify which teams are benefitting from a large and probably unsustainable turnover margin. I also look to see which teams are winning despite underperforming in terms of takeaways.

For instance, the Chicago Bears are 4-2. They also have a turnover margin of +8. This is largely because they’ve intercepted a league-high 11 passes. However, they’ve only committed five turnovers, which is tied for fifth-fewest in the league. As someone who has watched Caleb Williams play quite a bit, I don’t believe that is sustainable. I believe the Bears will turn the ball over more frequently in the last 10 games of this season than they did the first six games. I don’t think they will win 10 games.

I’m a little less certain about Indianapolis. The Colts have committed only four turnovers, which is tied for fourth fewest. This is largely because they’ve held the lead for so much of this season. They haven’t had to ask Daniel Jones to throw the team back into many games this season. Maybe the offense is as strong as it has looked through seven games. I’m a little dubious, though.

On the other hand, I look for teams that have won (or been close to winning) in spite of negative turnover margins.

Of the nine teams that have a turnover margin of -4 or worse, only the Seahawks and the 49ers have a winning record. While Seattle has yet to recover a fumble, San Francisco has yet to intercept a pass.

I realize that turnovers are not random occurrences. Some teams tend to force more than others, other teams have a tendency to commit them.

Here are the two things to remember about that, though:

The single most likely person to commit a fumble is the quarterback. This is not surprising. He is the one who handles the ball the most. He is also the one most susceptible to getting hit when he’s not expecting it.

Correspondingly, the teams that force the most turnovers tend to be the ones who rush the passer best either because they have the best pass rushers or because they tend to get out in front, putting opponents in the position where they have to pass. When this occurs, the announcer is contractually required to say “the defense can pin its ears back.” Seriously. It must be in the fine print given how religiously this refrain gets recited.

Seattle’s defense has one of the league’s better pass rushes. I believe that pass rush is going to create more turnovers in the final 10 games than it did in the first seven.

My question is about Sam Darnold. He has fumbled three times this season, two of which have been recovered by opponents. The first one ended Seattle’s chances at a Week 1 comeback. The second one resulted in an opponent’s touchdown.

The Seahawks have lost seven fumbles so far this season, tied for most in the NFL. That’s something Seattle needs to improve.

🔫 Russell fires back 🔫 

Russell Wilson departed the high road on Tuesday, responding to something Denver coach Sean Payton said following the Broncos’ comeback victory over the Giants.

You don’t have to read too far between the lines to see some shade being cast at Wilson, who played one season in Denver before he was released. Wilson was the Giants starter who Dart replaced.

First reaction: Good for Russ. People have gotten way too comfortable criticizing him, and I will absolutely include myself in that category. If people are going to keep taking pot-shots, he should feel free to fire back.

Second reaction: People do NOT like Sean Payton. The most common reaction from the NFL’s commenting class was to use Wilson’s response as a vehicle to point out Payton’s arrogance. If someone as professional and polished as Russ was willing to break character, it tells you what a scumbag Payton actually is.

Third reaction: Wilson needs new writers. The line about bounty hunting is bad. Like Machine Gun Kelly telling Eminem “your beard’s weird.”² A much more promising approach would have been to say, “At least I didn’t cross a picket line to get a shot in the NFL!” Or he could reference all the money the Broncos had to pay Wilson when they released him. Something like, “I got more money to leave Denver than you’ll make in Denver.”

For the record, Payton said he wasn’t trying to insult Wilson when he was asked about it on Wednesday:

🔍️ Under the microscope 🔍️

The Mariners had Eduardo Bazardo on the mound for what turned out to be the most important moment of one of the most important games this franchise has ever played.

I don’t think manager Dan Wilson planned for that to be the case, which is pat of the problem, and as I emerge from my cocoon of self-loathing to poke the now-cadaverous Game 7 with a stick, I’m going to try and analyze Wilson’s decision-making from a little bit different angle.

Most of the analysis of this decision has started with the (observably) bad result: Springer hit a three-run homer with one out in the bottom of the seventh, providing the margin by which Toronto won the final game of the American League Championship Series.

Most people have started with this and worked backward to identify scenarios that would have avoided this result.

• Should’ve used Andres Munoz.

• Should’ve left George Kirby in the game longer, wouldn’t have had to use Bazardo.

• Should’ve left Brian Woo in the game longer, wouldn’t have had to use Bazardo.

• Should’ve intentionally walked Springer then he wouldn’t have hit a home run.

None of those arguments are wrong per se. They all would have avoided Springer hitting a three-run homer in that situation, and if he hadn’t hit that home run, perhaps Seattle would have won.

Maybe.

But that leaves us in a land of hypotheticals, and it provides no meaningful insight as to whether Wilson’s decisions gave Seattle its best chance at winning.

Because that’s really what we’re debating here: Did Wilson’s decision-making maximize Seattle’s chances at winning the game?

To do that, you need to take into account both the options Wilson had as Springer stepped to the plate and the decisions that shaped those options.

I’m going to lay out what I believe those decisions were in order:

1. George Kirby wasn’t facing Toronto’s lineup a third time

I believe this decision was made before the game started. I think that’s why Kirby was throwing harder in the earlier innings than he usually does. His velocity was notably up. He knew he had two times through the order. Accordingly, he was emptying his tank quicker.

Through four innings, he’d faced 17 batters with Toronto’s No. 9 hitter Andres Gimenez scheduled to lead off the fifth, followed by Springer at the top of the order.

2. The Mariners didn’t want to bring in Brian Woo mid-inning.

When Woo entered the game, they wanted it to be at the start of an inning presumably so it felt more similar to the rhythm he’s accustomed to as a starter. The FOX announcers kept referring to a “clean” landing spot.

In my opinion, this seems like a reasonable plan. The Mariners certainly hoped Kirby would allow fewer baserunners than he did, thereby lasting longer, but I think this was a solid process for navigating the first half of the game.

Now we’re at the bottom of the seventh.

Woo has faced seven batters. He has thrown 28 pitches. He’s walked one, allowed a single and gotten a double play. The No. 7, No. 8 and No. 9 hitters are up for Toronto though it should be noted the bottom of the lineup did damage.

When that inning starts, Wilson has to know two things:

1. If Woo gets in trouble, is he going to let him pitch to the top of Toronto’s lineup for a second time?

2. If not, who will he go to?

Woo walked the first hitter he faced. He allowed a single to the second, a grounder up the middle. A sacrifice bunt puts runners on second and third with one out.

At this point, Wilson has four options:

1. Leave Woo in the game. Springer and Guerrero struck out swinging in Woo’s first time through the Blue Jay lineup.

2. Summon Bazardo, who’s been the right-handed pivot in Seattle’s bullpen this season, inheriting runners from the starter and getting the game to the closing sequence of Matt Brash and Munoz.

3. Summon Munoz. The lack of consideration for this option is demonstrated by the fact Munoz wasn’t warming up.

4. Intentionally walk Springer. This would be recommended only in hind-sight. Not only would this be putting the winning run on base, it would mean putting the winning run on base with Guerrero certain to get up in the inning barring a double play. Intentionally walking Springer would have been an objectively terrible decision.

We know Wilson used Bazardo. The possible justifications for that:

1. Wilson believed Bazardo was better equipped than Munoz to get Springer out.

2. Wilson didn’t want to use Munoz that early.

3. It’s the way Bazardo has been used all year. That experience should beget confidence.

I don’t think the first is accurate though I will acknowledge Wilson knows more about his staff’s ability and health than I do. It’s not impossible that he truly felt Bazardo was a better matchup against Springer. I don’t think that’s likely.

The second point is misguided. Seattle should have been using its best reliever in this situation. You need eight outs to reach the World Series. One of Toronto’s best hitters is at the plate, and its best is waiting two batters later. Sure, there might be critical situations that crop up in the eighth and/or ninth reflects, but you deal with those if and when they come up. You take care of the immediate threat, which is Springer.

I find the third reason to be the most compelling. Experience does equate to confidence. It’s why routines are important for athletes. Feeling you’ve been here, you’ve done makes it less nerve wracking.

I also think all that should be thrown out the window in this situation. Who’s the best pitcher that’s eligible to be used in that situation?

Your best reliever should be used to get the most difficult outs toward the end of a game. Having Springer at the plate with one out and the tying runs in scoring position is as difficult an out as a pitcher will face. Seattle should have had its best reliever out there, and I don’t think the Mariners did.

Great. Now I’m mad all over again.

1  Yes, I know this is a croissant, not a turnover. You get the idea, though. Let’s not parse pastries.

2  Rap beef is a sub-genre that I am conversant in though not necessariyl an expert. MGK vs. Eminem is one of the more hilarious because MGK’s song “Rap Devil” includes some hilarious silly stuff like MGK eating cereal for no reason and using “your beard’s weird” as an insult. Eminem’s response “Killshot” was just that. MGK pretty much moved to rock after it happened.