The best of the (NFC) West

On Sunday night, as the Chicago Bears were driving toward what would have been a game-winning score in overtime, I will admit that I had mixed feelings.

On the one hand, I thought Chicago was a more favorable matchup for Seattle. The Bears have a second-year quarterback in Caleb Williams, and had the Bears beaten the Rams, he would have been playing the first road playoff game of his career in Seattle.

On the other hand, I kind of wanted to see Rams vs. Seahawks, Round Three.

The first two meetings were (in my opinion) the two most exciting games the Seahawks played this season, and it feels kind of appropriate to have a final game that provides a definitive evaluation on who deserves to go to the Super Bowl.

I recognize that there are those who will disagree with this rationale. There are no extra points for degree of difficulty in a postseason run.

I will also say the 2013 NFC Championship Game remains the most memorable game I have ever covered, and a large part of the significance is tied to the history between the two teams.

🪩 The last dance 🪩

We’ve got a week to describe the various pain points for this specific matchup, but I’m going to focus on the thing I believe will be most important: turnovers. 

The Seahawks committed seven of them in the first two games. Quarterback Sam Darnold was intercepted six times, and Seattle lost on fumble.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford was not intercepted in either game, and the Rams only turnover was a fumble Rams receiver Puka Nacua lost early in the third quarter of the second meeting.

Now there are two ways to view to view Seattle’s -6 turnover margin against the Rams: 

1.  It’s a serious red flag because Darnold can’t seem to stop himself from giving the ball away against Chris Shula’s defense;

2. The fact Seattle kept things so close despite being -6 in turnovers tells you how good the Seahawks actually are … if Darnold can avoid giving the ball away to Chris Shula’s defense. 

This actually gets us back to something I wrote about earlier: While turnover margin has a high correlation with the outcome of a football game, turnover rate is not necessarily predictive.

Put another way: If you commit a ton of turnovers, it’s harder to win. However, just because you have committed a ton of turnovers doesn’t mean you will continue to commit a ton of turnovers.

We’ve got a great example this weekend.

The Houston Texans committed 12 turnovers in 17 games during the regular season, second-fewest of any team in the league.

They committed eight turnovers in two playoff games, however, and while they overcame those mistakes to beat Pittsburgh last week, the turnovers wound up being a backbreaker in a 28-16 loss to New England on Saturday.

It was hard to see that sort of thing coming.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud was picked off eight times in the 14 regular-season games he played in 2025 and he didn’t lose a fumble.

He was picked off five times in the playoffs and lost two fumbles. 

When something like this happens, the tendency to put all of the focus on the quarterback and his decision-making:

• He didn’t handle the pressure well.

• The moment got too big for him.

• He went on tilt.

These are all ways that are being used to explain why one of the most sure-handed offenses in 2025 became so error-prone in the playoffs, and for his part, Stroud did exactly what Darnold did after he was picked off four times in the November loss to the Rams: He stood up and took responsibility for the mistakes, expressing regret over letting his team down. 

That’s not necessarily unfair. I believe it’s overly simplified, however. It completely overlooks the way the defense impacted Stroud’s decision-making, and it neglects to consider the fact that turnovers are often fluky events that can occur in a game for any number of reasons.

Put more simply: They are not (necessarily) predictive.

The Seahawks committed 28 turnovers during the regular season, second-most of any team in the league. This was surprising because Seattle was one of the more run-heavy offenses in the league. Runs result in turnovers at a lower rate than passes. The fact that Seattle still turned the ball over so often was seen as a reflection of Darnold.

I don’t believe that’s unfair.

The question is how much it tells us about the likelihood of turnovers in the playoffs.

In the divisional round, the Seahawks forced three turnovers from the 49ers and committed none.

Some of that is a reflection of circumstance. The Seahawks took a lead they never lost 13 seconds into the game. They never faced the urgency let alone the desperation that comes with a double-digit deficit in the playoffs. Darnold threw five passers in the second half. Five.

Seattle would love nothing more than to repeat that scenario on Sunday against the Rams. I don’t think any of us expect that to happen.

The Rams aren’t as worn down by injuries as the 49ers were. They’ve been a more formidable offense this season, and the Rams have have posed a particular problem for Darnold.

And still, I find myself wondering just how much those six interceptions he threw against the Rams in the regular season tell us about how he’ll play on Sunday.