The 2025 Playoff Percolator

Seahawks (11-3 overall, 2-2 division)

Week 15 result: Seattle 18, Indianapoilis 16

Remaining schedule: vs. Los Angeles Rams (11-3), at Carolina (7-7), at San Francisco (10-4).

• The Seahawks clinch a playoff berth … with one victory in their final three regular-season games or one Detroit loss.

• The Seahawks clinch the NFC West … if they win each of their final three regular-season games.

• It is virtually impossible for Seattle to win any tiebreaker atop the NFC West for reasons that I will explain at the bottom.

Los Angeles Rams (11-3, 3-1 division)

 Week 15 result: Rams 41, Lions 34

 Remaining schedule: at Seattle (11-3), at Atlanta (5-9), vs. Arizona (3-11).

The Rams are tied with Seattle for best record in the NFC, and are virtually certain to have a tiebreaker advantage over the Seahawks in any two-way tie.

San Francisco 49ers (10-4, 4-1 division)

Week 15 result: 49ers 37, Titans 24

Remaining schedule: at Indianapolis (8-6), vs. Chicago (10-4), vs. Seattle (11-3).

If Seattle beats the Rams on Thursday night, the 49ers would be able to clinch the division by winning their final three games. At 13-4, they would win any and all tiebreakers that might result either by virtue of a better head-to-head record or because of a better divisional record.

OK, that’s the easy part. Explaining why Seattle can’t win any tiebreakers atop the division is where it gets tricky. For reference, here’s the NFL tiebreaking format.

1. If the Seahawks and Rams finish in a two-way tie atop the division … the Rams would win the tiebreaker because one of three things will be true:

   a) Either the Rams will have beat the Seahawks on Thursday and therefore have a head-to-head advantage (Criteria 1), or

   b) The Seahawks beat the Rams on Thursday, but lost to the 49ers in which case the Rams have a better record in division games (Criteria 2), or

   c) The Seahawks beat the Rams on Thursday, but lost to the Panthers in which case the Rams have a better record in division games (Criteria 3).

2. If the Seahawks, 49ers and Rams finish in a three-way tie atop the division … the Seahawks can not win the tiebreaker because:

   a) Seattle will have the worst record in head-to-head games among the three teams. For there to be a three-way tie, Seattle must lose to either the 49ers or the Rams. That would leave Seattle 1-3 in head-to-head games among the three teams (Criteria 1).

   b) The winner of the three-way tiebreaker would be whichever team, the Rams or 49ers, that beats Seattle over these final three weeks.

3. If the Seahawks and 49ers finish tied top the division … the 49ers would win the tiebreaker because one of two things will be true:

   a) Either the 49ers will have beaten the Seahawks in Week 18, and therefore have the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage (Criteria 1), or

   b) The Seahawks will have beaten the 49ers in Week 18, but lost in Week 16 to the Rams and therefore the 49ers will have a better record in division games (Criteria 2).

If you’re wondering what would happen if Seattle beats both the Rams and 49ers and loses to the Panthers … the Seahawks would be 13-4 and need the Rams to lose to either Atlanta or Arizona in order to win the division. In this scenario, the 49ers could finish no better than 12-5.