The dangers of a desperate opponent

In the NFL, we underestimate the difficulty of shutting the door on an opponent.

There are good reasons for this, which I’ll get to in a second, but first let’s start with some of the actual factual.

In Week 1 of the NFL, there were six (6) times in which a team: a) had the ball in the final 5 minutes of the fourth quarter; b) with a chance to tie or take the lead:

Without knowing the outcomes, I would have guessed that three of these six drives would have fizzled before hitting midfield and that one or two would have reached the end zone.

The actual results?

Five of those six teams drove the ball inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.

Three of those six teams scored touchdowns.

Three committed turnovers. This includes the Seahawks’ Week 1 opponent, the Patriots, who were in position to—at the very least—attempt a game-tying field goal only to have Drake Maye lob a pass that Seattle’s Josh Jobe intercepted in the end zone.

Now in any given NFL season, somewhere between 20 and 25 percent of all drives result in touchdowns.

In the six do-or-die scenarios that occurred in Week 1, half resulted in touchdowns. Not only that, but two of three teams that failed to score worked themselves within striking distance of the opponent’s end zone.

This has everything to do with circumstance.

Teams that are behind late aren’t as worried about turning the ball over as they were earlier in the game.

That’s because one of the two main downsides to committing a turnover has been removed from the equation.

More specifically, teams aren’t concerned about gifting their opponent a scoring opportunity. They’re only worried about scoring themselves.

So they’re going to go for it on fourth down.

And they’re going to throw the ball downfield.

And while they certainly don’t want to turn the ball over, getting picked off or losing a fumble isn’t any worse than punting. In fact, it’s preferable because at least you’re running a play that could conceivably extend the game.

It’s tempting to say a team making a last-minute comeback may look more desperate, but the truth is that the offense is less inhibited. It’s not worried about the loss of field position that comes with a turnover because it knows it’s toast if it doesn’t score.

When that happens, a team has to balance its desire to position itself for a game-winning field goal with the reality that a turnover might gift wrap the game for its opponent.

The Week 1 game between the Lions and Saints provided a great example.

After the Saints scored a touchdown in Detroit, tying the game 24-24, the Lions received the kickoff with 1:07 left and all three of their timeouts.

That was more than enough time to score. For either team.

Balancing this gets tricky. The Lions had enough time to win, but they had to manage that against the risk of losing.

1st-and-10 at the NO-35, 1:07 left. Quarterback Jared Goff scrambled for 2 yards stepping out of bounds, which stopped the clock.

2nd-and-8 at the NO-37, 1:00 left. Goff completed a pass to Amon St. Brown, who was tackled 1-yard short of the first-down marker.

Detroit had a timeout it could have called. That would have given New Orleans more time, however, if the Saints stopped the Lions on third down.

3rd-and-1 at the NO-44, the Saints snapped the ball with :40 remaining in the fourth quarter and Jameson Williams dropped what would have been a first down, stopping the clock at :37

4th-and-1 at the NO-44. Detroit punted.

1st-and-10 at the DET-20. Trevor Etienne gained 18 yards. The Saints used their final timeout.

1st-and-10 at the DET-38. Tyler Shough completed an 18-yard pass, the offense hurried to spike the ball at the Detroit 44 with 6 seconds left.

1st-and-10 at the NO-44, :06. Shough incomplete pass. Saints looked for something quick on the sideline so the receiver could get out of bounds, but the Lions had it covered.

It’s worth noting that those 10 seconds the Lions let run off the clock on their final possession of the fourth quarter proved pivotal. If the Saints had :16 left, they could have moved the ball closer.

2nd-and-10 at the NO-44, :02. Daniel Carlson 62-yard FG missed to the right.

The best way to close out a game in the NFL?

Play keepaway. Let your offense hold onto the ball

And you know what closers get, according to Alec Baldwin? Coffee’s for closers only. And these three teams get a steaming hot mug for their Week 1 efforts.

That’s the end of the first edition of End Game, and because this is something of an experiment, I’d love to hear what you thought: